Freight traffic growth

Review of Trends in Manufacturing and Global Supply Chains and their Effects on UK Freight

Report

Mangan, D.J and McKinnon, A.C., Report commissioned by UK Government as part of its Foresight Future of Mobility project. 2019

Between 2017 and 2019, the UK Government Office for Science (GO-Science) conducted a study of the Future of Mobility up to 2040.   This was a wide-ranging study examining personal and freight movement over different geographical scales and taking both demand and supply perspectives.  ...

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Application of the Delphi Method to the Forecasting of Long-Term Trends in Road Freight, Logistics and Related CO2 Emissions

Paper

Piecyk, M. and McKinnon, A.C. International Journal of Transport Economics, 40, 2 (2013)

A Delphi survey is a popular forecasting technique that can be applied to a wide range of research problems and disciplines. It is particularly useful in mid- and long-term forecasting. This paper reviews applications of the method to the field of freight transport and logistics and assesses the usefulness of Delphi-derived predictions of long-term freight and associated environmental trends. ...

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Decoupling, recoupling and the future growth of road freight

Paper

McKinnon, A.C., Piecyk, M. and Somerville, A. Logistics and Transport Review, 10, 12, 40-46 (2008)

Between 1997 and 2004, the GDP and freight tonne-km growth trends in the UK decoupled after a long period of tight coupling. Over the period 2005-2007 the trends temporarily ‘recoupled’. This paper examines why this might have happened and asks how long a coupling or decoupling trend should be observed ... ...

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Decoupling of Road Freight Transport and Economic Growth Trends in the UK: An Exploratory Analysis

Paper

McKinnon, A.C. Transport Reviews, 27, 1, 37-64 (2007)

Between 1997 and 2004, gross domestic product increased in real terms in the UK by one‐fifth, while the volume of road freight movement remained stable. This suggests that the long‐awaited decoupling of economic and freight transport growth has begun, possibly leading to a new era of sustainable logistics. ...

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Logistical restructuring, freight traffic growth and the environment

Chapter

McKinnon, A.C. in Transport Policy and the Environment. Edited by Banister, D. Routledge, London, 97-109 (1998)

This book chapter shows how the amount of freight movement, and its related environmental impacts, are the result of interaction between four levels of logistical decision-making affecting logistics structure, the pattern of trading links, the scheduling of product flow and the management of transport resources. ...

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Logistical restructuring and road freight traffic growth

Paper

McKinnon, A.C. and Woodburn, A. Transportation, 23, 2, 141-161 (1996)

The forecasting of road freight traffic has relied heavily on the close correlation between GDP and road tonne-kilometers. It has not been rooted in an understanding of the causes of freight traffic growth. The research reported in this paper has investigated this process of traffic growth in two ways: first, ... ...

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A Logistical Perspective on Freight Traffic Growth

Paper

McKinnon, A.C. and Woodburn, A. Traffic Engineering and Control, 34, 10, 466-471 (1993)

This paper examines some of the underlying causes of the steep increase in lorry traffic on Britain's roads. It argues that to understand the process of freight traffic growth it is necessary to examine the logistical trade-offs that firms make at different levels of decision making. ...

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The Growth of Road Freight in the UK

Paper

McKinnon, A.C. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management, 19, 4, 3-13 (1989)

The volume of road freight movement in the UK has more than doubled over the past 25 years and its present growth is considerably exceeding official forecasts made in 1984. An attempt is made to explain why this growth has occurred, taking account of the close relationship between tonne‐kilometres and ... ...

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